Trend Analysis

Market Strategy Radar Screen Weekly - March 7, 2016

In this article:

  • ADP Employment
  • non-farm payroll number
  • Q4 earnings season
  • volatility


Embrace the Uncertainty

By John Stoltzfus,
Chief Investment Strategist

What Are the Markets Telling Us?

By John Stoltzfus,
Chief Investment Strategist

Other Articles By John Stoltzfus:

Embrace the Uncertainty

By John Stoltzfus,
Chief Investment Strategist

What Are the Markets Telling Us?

By John Stoltzfus,
Chief Investment Strategist

So Far so Good

But we’ll keep the party hats in the box even as we’ve enjoyed the market’s ride higher

Stocks stateside rallied for a third week straight through last Friday supported by economic data which, while somewhat mixed, was overall strong enough to convince even many skeptics–at least for now–that things are actually getting better (economically) in the US and that stocks merited the bid they’ve caught since the market bottomed on February 11th.

Though the broad market is still off a little more than 2% on a year-to-date basis, the rally from the low on February 11th has respectively pushed the S&P 500, the S&P 400, the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ: 9.34%, 12.95%, 13.44% and 10.55% higher.

Last week any disappointing economic numbers seemed nicely offset by substantially better than expected numbers in:

  • Construction spending (up 1.5% in January vs. economist survey expectations for +0.3%);
  • The ADP Employment change (up 214K vs. 190K expected);
  • The change in private payrolls (230,000 added vs. 190,000 forecast); and
  • The Labor Department’s non-farm payroll number for February (242,000 versus 195,000 forecast).

The aforementioned better than anticipated numbers handily offset mixed and even disappointing numbers in:


  • Average hourly earnings, which rose 2.2% vs. an expected gain of 2.5%;
  • A 16,000 drop in manufacturing jobs (vs. expectations for a drop of just 1,000 jobs);
  • A smaller than expected increase in factory orders (1.5% vs. 2.1%);

It was the non-farm payroll number for February in particular that appeared to push investors’ lingering worries aside (at least for the time being) resulting in stocks rising higher in the week that closed out the month of February and brought in March–the last month of the first quarter.


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About John Stolzfus

John is one of the most popular faces around Oppenheimer: our clients have come to rely on his market recaps for timely analysis and a confident viewpoint on the road forward. He frequently lends his expertise to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business channel and other notable networks.

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