Trend Analysis

Market Strategy Radar Screen Weekly - November 16, 2015


In this article:

  • Market Analysis
  • Commodities
  • S&P 500

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Get Used to It

Transitions Are Complex and Unsettling


Last week the major equity benchmarks in the US declined on a number of concerns including those tied to the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate when it meets on December 16 and the likelihood that such action would add to the dollar’s recently resurgent strength and provide further negative impact on revenue and earnings for US multinational corporations competing with foreign multinationals.

Declines in commodity prices linked to worries about slowing global growth (particularly China’s growth) helped push down commodity prices as well last week with the Russell/Jeffries CRB Index (an index comprising 19 diversified commodity futures contracts) shedding 3.3% over the last week as prices of 15 of its 19 commodity components fell. Oil and gasoline were the worst performing components of the index last week, falling -8.02% and -9.54% respectively. 

The only components of the CRB benchmark that were on the rise were Orange Juice, Sugar and Cocoa, respectively advancing 5.0%, 3.6% and 15.0%, while Cotton was relatively flat, up 2.3%.

Disappointing sales and near-term prospects at Macy’s as well as at a number of other well-known department stores that reported last week triggered a price decline in a sub-index of the Consumer Discretionary sector of the S&P 500 which includes some 20 department stores.

For the week through last Friday, the S&P 500, the S&P 400 (mid-caps) and the Russell 2000 (smallcaps) declined 3.63%, 3.91% and -4.4% respectively. For all the intra-week drama surrounding those respective declines, however, we’d note that the same three indexes as of last Friday were still up 7.5%, 3.94% and 5.13% respectively from a low on September 28..


 

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About John Stolzfus

John is one of the most popular faces around Oppenheimer: our clients have come to rely on his market recaps for timely analysis and a confident viewpoint on the road forward. He frequently lends his expertise to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business channel and other notable networks.

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