Trend Analysis

Market Strategy Radar Screen Weekly - March 7, 2016


In this article:

  • ADP Employment
  • non-farm payroll number
  • Q4 earnings season
  • volatility

RELATED ARTICLES:

Market Strategy Radar Screen Weekly February 21, 2017

By John Stoltzfus,
Chief Investment Strategist

Market Strategy Radar Screen Weekly February 27, 2017

By John Stoltzfus,
Chief Investment Strategist


Other Articles By John Stoltzfus:

Market Strategy Radar Screen Weekly February 21, 2017

By John Stoltzfus,
Chief Investment Strategist

Market Strategy Radar Screen Weekly February 27, 2017

By John Stoltzfus,
Chief Investment Strategist


So Far so Good

But we’ll keep the party hats in the box even as we’ve enjoyed the market’s ride higher


Stocks stateside rallied for a third week straight through last Friday supported by economic data which, while somewhat mixed, was overall strong enough to convince even many skeptics–at least for now–that things are actually getting better (economically) in the US and that stocks merited the bid they’ve caught since the market bottomed on February 11th.

Though the broad market is still off a little more than 2% on a year-to-date basis, the rally from the low on February 11th has respectively pushed the S&P 500, the S&P 400, the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ: 9.34%, 12.95%, 13.44% and 10.55% higher.

Last week any disappointing economic numbers seemed nicely offset by substantially better than expected numbers in:

  • Construction spending (up 1.5% in January vs. economist survey expectations for +0.3%);
  • The ADP Employment change (up 214K vs. 190K expected);
  • The change in private payrolls (230,000 added vs. 190,000 forecast); and
  • The Labor Department’s non-farm payroll number for February (242,000 versus 195,000 forecast).


The aforementioned better than anticipated numbers handily offset mixed and even disappointing numbers in:

 

  • Average hourly earnings, which rose 2.2% vs. an expected gain of 2.5%;
  • A 16,000 drop in manufacturing jobs (vs. expectations for a drop of just 1,000 jobs);
  • A smaller than expected increase in factory orders (1.5% vs. 2.1%);


It was the non-farm payroll number for February in particular that appeared to push investors’ lingering worries aside (at least for the time being) resulting in stocks rising higher in the week that closed out the month of February and brought in March–the last month of the first quarter.

 

Potential Conflicts of Interest

Strategic analysts employed by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. are compensated from revenues generated by the firm. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. generally prohibits strategists and members of his or her households from executing trades in the securities of a company that is discussed in a strategy report. . Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing as well as more specific disclosures set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest.

 

Other Disclosures

This report is issued and approved by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., a member of all Principal Exchanges, and SIPC. This report is distributed by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., for informational purposes only, to its institutional and retail investor clients. This report does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not rely solely on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment of the merits and risks of investments. The strategist writing this report is not a person or company with actual, implied or apparent authority to act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the report. Before making an investment decision with respect to any security discussed in this report, the recipient should consider whether such investment is appropriate given the recipient's particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. We recommend that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourage investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. will not treat non-client recipients as its clients solely by virtue of their receiving this report. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance of any security mentioned in this report. The price of the securities mentioned in this report and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, and investors may realize losses on investments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal.

 

Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of information contained in this report. All information, opinions and statistical data contained in this report were obtained or derived from public sources believed to be reliable, but Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not represent that any such information, opinion or statistical data is accurate or complete and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates and opinions expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change, any reference in this report to the impact of taxation


 

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

should not be construed as offering tax advice on the tax consequences of investments. As with any investment having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own independent tax adviser.

 

This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient's convenience and information, and the content of linked third party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who choose to access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged value-weighted index of 500 common stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 index figures do not reflect any fees, expenses or taxes. This research is distributed in the UK and elsewhere throughout Europe, as third party research by Oppenheimer Europe Ltd, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This research is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to purchase or sell investments or related financial instruments. This report is for distribution only to persons who are eligible counterparties or professional clients and is exempt from the general restrictions in section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 on the communication of invitations or inducements to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is being distributed in the UK only to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) (Investment Professionals) and 49(2) High Net Worth companies, unincorporated associations etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended). It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. In particular, this material is not for distribution to, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients, as defined under the rules of the FCA. Neither the FCA’s protection rules nor compensation scheme may be applied. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Copyright © Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 2015.


About John Stolzfus

John is one of the most popular faces around Oppenheimer: our clients have come to rely on his market recaps for timely analysis and a confident viewpoint on the road forward. He frequently lends his expertise to CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business channel and other notable networks.

Full Profile